Every time the markets brush all-time highs, I get asked by nervous investors if they should consider buying any stocks at these levels.
My answer is always the same: Yes – if this one condition holds true.
[ad#Google Adsense 336×280-IA]Let me give you an example of what I’m talking about.
Back in late 1999, I can’t tell you how many people I heard from who were saying that stocks were expensive, there was nothing to buy, and my favorite “the markets just look expensive!”
Under the circumstances, you wouldn’t blame anyone for running for the nearest hill with a sign saying “kick me when it’s over!”
All of this should sound very familiar to people worrying about those same things today.
But the irony here is that the more things change, the more they stay the same, to borrow an old expression.
Take Altria Group Inc. (NYSE:MO), for example.
Back then, the company was trading at or near all-time highs of $53 per share, which made it very “expensive” compared to similar stocks. Investors who were caught up in the dot.com bubble found it to be boring, and not nearly as sexy as Pets.com, or General Foods, all of which have gone up to the big financial graveyard in the sky in the years since.
But Altria had a rock solid business model, and was tapped into the Unstoppable Trends we follow day in and day out here.
Not only did this give the company huge profit potential, but it gave those very same investors the thing they crave most – stability.
Since then, the stock has returned 1,589%, which kinda defeats the “boy, that’s expensive at this moment in time” argument, don’t you think?
Today, you hear stories of many investors fretting about getting into companies that are “too expensive,” and usually about tech companies in particular.
The headlines, if you took names out, would be almost interchangeable.
Amazon.com Inc. (NasdaqGS:AMZN) trades at a PE of 185, and Facebook Inc. (NasdaqGS:FB) trades at a PE of 290. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been asked if they’re still good investments.
The answer is yes, but it requires a closer look at one factor… their business model.
Back in the late 1990s, the talk was all about the internet, but we really didn’t have the backbone needed for the huge returns everyone thought were possible. So I tied Altria into Demographics, knowing full well that people do three things when the going gets tough: they smoke, they drink, and they have sex, although not necessarily in that order.
Today, those tech companies are in much the same situation. Except this time around, we actually do have the technology in place.
And that’s one of the things that makes me believe there’s still more upside ahead.
Each of the companies I’ve just mentioned, for example, can add a million customers at a click of a button, or by releasing a few lines of code.
What’s more, they can do that no matter who’s in the White House, no matter who’s in Congress, no matter whether Wall Street is muzzled or not, and no matter the social meme of the day.
Which means they’re scalable… potentially worth hundreds of billions of dollars more than they are today.
Now, let’s return to Altria for a moment.
I recommended the company in 2010 under very similar conditions to those we face today. And since then, it’s returned 302%, versus 114% from the S&P over the same time frame.
I recommended Becton, Dickinson & Co. (NYSE:BDX) in February 2012, and it’s returned 129%.
Even American Water Works Co. Inc. (NYSE:AWK), which is a boring utility in the best possible way, has returned well into the triple-digits, despite the fact everyone and their monkey’s uncle thought it was expensive at the time.
In February 2010 I recommended Altria Group Inc. (NYSE:MO) to Money Map Report members.
The pick raised a few eyebrows because Altria was brushing 52-week highs back then, leading some observers to question my timing. Even worse in their eyes, the stock had completed a legendary run.
A New Credit Suisse Report released that year showed that the tobacco industry had had an epic run in wealth creation, turning every dollar invested in 1900 into $6,280,237.
Coal, food, utilities, telecommunications… no other industry came close.
Even for those of us not around in 1900, tobacco offered astonishing profit opportunities for middle-aged investors today. From 1968 to 2015, for example, a single dollar invested in Altria stock’s then-predecessor turned into more than $6,700 today.
With a performance like that, it’s no surprise then that Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel christened Altria the most successful stock of the 20th century.
Millions of investors thought the party must be over, but I didn’t, thanks to its ties to the Unstoppable Trends. They thought there was no way the stock could double when it had already multiplied itself by more than 619,900%.
Well, Altria stock didn’t double – it tripled in stock price. Factor in dividends, and investors who acted as I urged in 2010 had the chance to capture 302% profits – more than quadruple their money.
Kind of puts the expression “Smoke ’em if you got ’em” in a new light, doesn’t it?
I don’t blame people for wondering how a sector could be so profitable, considering all the headwinds it faces on paper. It operates in the most litigious industry known to man. It’s subject to heavy taxes from hostile governments. It’s even been largely banned from advertising in America for more than 10 years.
But Altria has something going for it that no amount of government restrictions can undo. It’s backed by an Unstoppable Trend – Demographics.
Even as smoking rates tumble in the United States and to a lesser extent in Europe, cigarette companies are making huge inroads in emerging economies. For example, while cigarette consumption in America fell from 640 billion sticks a year in the 1950s to less than 340 billion today, the amount of tobacco sold in China more than picked up the slack, increasing to 2.1 trillion cigarettes each year.
As long as these surges in consumption across populations are continuing, Altria will be firmly in command of the Demographics Trend. And that’s the best news its shareholders could hope for.
It wasn’t too late to multiply your money from Altria in 2010 – and it’s not too late now.
So if you’re one of the millions of investors worried that the markets are expensive and that there’s nothing to buy, I totally get where you’re coming from.
What’s more, I actually think that’s a fantastic observation on your part because it means you’re paying attention, something not a lot of investors are doing right now.
That gives you a big advantage.
You can profit from the Unstoppable Trends any day, and multiply your money any year. And unlike fad or hype-driven investments, Unstoppable Trends are never “too expensive” to get behind.
Until next time,
Keith
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Source: Money Morning