Wall Street can be highly unpredictable over the short-term — just ask any growth-focused investor.
Since mid-2021, growth-seeking investors have watched the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100, an index comprised of the 100-largest nonfinancial stocks listed on the Nasdaq exchange, soar to record-closing highs, subsequently lose 33% of their value in 2022, then close out the first half of 2023 with respective gains of 32% (Nasdaq Composite) and 39% (Nasdaq 100).
Despite this scorching-hot start to the year, bargains can still be found within the Nasdaq 100. But at the same time, not all stocks within this innovation-driven index are worth buying. What follows are two Nasdaq 100 stocks investors can confidently buy in July, as well as one pricey Nasdaq 100 stock that can be avoided.
Nasdaq 100 stock No. 1 that’s a surefire buy in July: CrowdStrike Holdings
The first Nasdaq 100 stock that can be purchased with confidence by patient investors is end-user cybersecurity company CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD).
The top objection to buying shares of CrowdStrike right now is going to be its valuation. Shares of the company were trading at a multiple of 61 times Wall Street’s consensus earnings for fiscal 2024 (ending Jan. 31, 2024) and 47 times consensus earnings for fiscal 2025. On paper, CrowdStrike isn’t cheap, and that’s generally not good news when the near-term growth outlook for the U.S. economy is uncertain.
However, there are a number of catalysts and considerations working in CrowdStrike’s favor that would seem to easily outweigh the aforementioned valuation narrative. For starters, cybersecurity solutions have become a basic necessity for businesses of all sizes with an online or cloud-based presence. It’s open season for hackers 365 days a year, regardless of how well or poorly the U.S. economy and stock market are performing. For CrowdStrike, it means steady cash flow in any economic environment.
Depending on your preferred valuation metric, CrowdStrike is actually a lot cheaper than investors may realize. Utilizing the price-to-earnings-growth ratio (PEG ratio) changes things in a big way. With earnings growth expected to average nearly 39% on an annualized basis over the next five years, its forward price-to-earnings ratio of 47 is quite reasonable.
What makes CrowdStrike tick is Falcon, the company’s artificial intelligence (AI)-inspired end-user security platform. Falcon oversees trillions of events each week and, with the help of machine learning, is becoming more effective at spotting and responding to potential threats.
While sales and profit growth are the headline figures investors often gravitate to, there are two operating metrics that tell the most important story about CrowdStrike. The first is its gross retention of 98%. Even though CrowdStrike’s software-as-a-service solutions are pricier than some of its peers, the vast majority of the company’s clients are sticking around. That’s a testament to the efficacy of Falcon.
The second metric that speaks volumes has to do with add-on sales. As of the end of April, 62% of the company’s more than 23,000 clients had purchased five or more cloud-module subscriptions. That compares to six years ago when just a single-digit percentage of its less than 500 subscribers had purchased four or more cloud-module subscriptions. These add-on sales are a powerful margin driver for the company.
Nasdaq 100 stock No. 2 that’s a surefire buy in July: Walgreens Boots Alliance
A second Nasdaq 100 stock that’s a surefire buy in July is pharmacy chain Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA).
Valuation is definitely not Walgreens’ biggest issue. Rather, the combination of fewer in-store visits for COVID-19 vaccinations, coupled with higher inflation, has the company’s stock vacillating around a 12-year low. While lowering its adjusted profit outlook for the current fiscal year isn’t ideal, the initiatives management has implemented should make Walgreens Boots Alliance a far stronger company over the next three to five years.
As you can imagine, cost-cutting is part of the plan. Initially, the company had a goal of reducing its operating expenses by $2 billion by the end of fiscal 2022 (Walgreens’ fiscal year ends on August 31). It achieved this mark a full year ahead of schedule. With underperforming store closures on the docket, Walgreens is aiming to hit $3.3 billion in aggregate cost-savings by the end of the current fiscal year and $4.1 billion by the end of fiscal 2024.
But let’s be honest, growth initiatives matter far more than where Walgreens is trimming the fat. One way the company is spending for its future is through various digitization initiatives. Management has aggressively beefed up the company’s online offerings, encouraged drive-thru pickup of online orders, and reworked its supply chain.
An even more intriguing development is Walgreens’ deepening partnership with VillageMD. Walgreens and VillageMD have opened more than 200 full-service clinics co-located at its stores, with the goal of reaching 1,000 VillageMD clinics in more than 30 U.S. markets by the end of 2027. These are physician-staffed clinics, which sets them apart from most in-store clinics that are only capable of handling simple vaccines or a sniffle. This shift to healthcare services is a clear deviation from the horizontal growth strategy Walgreens had relied on for years, and it should result in a higher operating margin over the coming five years.
If you need one more good reason to trust in Walgreens Boots Alliance, look no further than its 6.6% dividend yield or the fact that its base annual payout has grown in each of the past 47 years.
The Nasdaq 100 stock to avoid in July: Tesla
However, not all Nasdaq 100 stocks are worth buying in July. Following a monstrous rally to begin the year, electric-vehicle (EV) maker Tesla (TSLA) is a stock to pass up.
To be fair, Tesla has done a number of things right. It’s the first automaker in more than a half-century to build itself from the ground up to mass production. It’s also the only pure-play EV manufacturer that’s consistently profitable on the basis generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). Tesla has been able to pivot its first-mover advantages into world-leading EV market share.
Furthermore, Tesla’s second-quarter production and delivery figures crushed analyst estimates. On July 2, the company reported production of 479,700 EVs, along with 466,140 deliveries. As per the norm, the Model 3 sedan and Model Y SUV made up the bulk of these deliveries. But the good news stops here.
One of the clearest concerns for Tesla is what may have happened to its second-quarter automotive gross margin. Though deliveries surpassed expectations, it came on the heels of a half-dozen price cuts in the U.S. and abroad. Excluding renewable energy credits, Tesla’s automotive gross margin plummeted to 18.3% in the March-ended quarter from closer to 33% in Q1 2022. There’s a real chance the company’s automotive gross margin could shrink even further in the June-ended quarter.
Another problem for Tesla is its CEO, Elon Musk. Although Elon Musk has overseen the development of numerous innovations, I’d argue he’s better known for irking regulators or making promises that can’t be fulfilled. Autonomous full self-driving being “one year away” for nine years straight is an example of a baked-in promise that hasn’t been met. Tesla’s otherworldly market cap has a lot of these unfulfilled promises factored in.
Tesla’s valuation is also a concern. Whereas CrowdStrike benefits from selling a basic necessity solution, automobiles are a highly cyclical discretionary good. The close ties auto stocks have with the U.S. economy is why the industry typically trades at just a high-single-digit price-to-earnings ratio.
As of the holiday-shortened closing bell on July 3, Tesla was valued at 81 times Wall Street’s consensus earnings for 2023 and a multiple of 57 times forward-year earnings. It’s an incredibly aggressive valuation for just a car company. If the U.S. economy does weaken in the second-half of 2023, as the Federal Reserve has previously predicted, Tesla could be among the first high-growth names to see its shares deflate.
— Sean Williams
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Source: The Motley Fool