Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21, 2020, were a record 3.28 million.
That’s 11.6 times the week before, when 281,000 claims were filed, and 4.72 times the previous record of 695,000 Americans seeking benefits way back in the week ending Oct. 2, 1982.
Is that crazy?
NO – and yes.
When you put this rally in context, it looks one way. But we cannot forget what’s coming for us…
As frightening as the record number of Americans who filed for unemployment benefits is, in terms of so many people tragically being out of work so suddenly, and what it says about prospects for the businesses that had to let them go, the shock wasn’t unexpected.
Economists and Wall Street analysts were expecting, on average, just under 3 million new claims. Street estimates ranged from a low of 1.5 million to 4.4 million.
Prior to the number’s release at 8:30 a.m. yesterday, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were trading down between 300 and 500 points. Immediately after the report’s release, traders started buying futures contracts, lifting them almost into positive territory.
The reaction surprised a lot of investors, but set the stage for a higher opening an hour later.
Riding the positive tone set by the futures, investors went to work buying shares as soon as the opening bell sounded.
Within seconds, the Dow was up 500 points.
What on the surface seemed like a perverse reaction to depressing news was actually an expression of relief that the number wasn’t far worse.
The rally, put in context, wasn’t crazy at all – it made perfect sense. Just as all market moves make sense in hindsight.
Investors had been riding a two-day rally on the heels of a horrible Monday sell-off that saw the major benchmarks make new intraday lows and close at their 52-week lows.
Tuesday’s record 2,112-point jump higher for the Dow, followed by another 495 point up-move on Wednesday, were the market’s first back-to-back up days since February. In other words, stocks had rallied hard and fast immediately after hitting frightening lows.
Investors who missed the rally on Tuesday, but were encouraged by the big bounce and missed the follow-up rally on Wednesday, were suddenly struck with a serious case of FOMO, or fear of missing out.
Seeing futures rebound after the claims number and having already missed spectacular gains off Monday’s lows, investors and traders weren’t going to let another day of gains pass them by.
With the backdrop of the $2 trillion rescue package nearing congressional approval and the promise of the president’s immediate signature, it became a total, almost crazy, “risk-on” day.
So, maybe it wasn’t crazy. Then again, maybe it was. Because we can’t forget what’s ahead of us here…
The fact that 3.28 million people signed up for unemployment benefits in a week is freaking crazy.
The fact that so many businesses are shut down and many of them will never open again is crazy.
The fact that next week will see maybe as many or more people line up for unemployment benefits is even crazier.
The fact that the United States is headed into an ugly recession, even if on the most optimistic hopes of idiots it’s only going to be a two-month recession, the fact that investors are clamoring back into stocks with abandon now, is crazy.
Recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The last U.S. recession, the Great Recession, officially ended in June 2009.
Well, another one’s coming, hard and fast. If you don’t believe that, someone’s crazy, and it’s not me.
The country gets a look at first-quarter GDP on April 29. Second-quarter GDP’s first estimate comes out on July 30, 2020.
Here’s what the experts think:
Morgan Stanley says Q1 GDP will be -2.4% (- means negative, as in contraction) and Q2 will be -30.1%.
Goldman Sachs says Q1 GDP will be -6% and Q2 will be -24%.
JPMorgan Chase says Q1 will come in at -4% and Q2 will be -14%.
Starting to get it?
We’re headed into a bad recession.
Call me crazy, but I doubt we’ll magically snap out of it in the second half of the year.
That means the rally is a godsend, so enjoy it while it lasts.
— Shah Gilani
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Source: Money Morning