As the coauthor of the 1998 book “Contrarian Investing: How to Buy and Sell When Others Won’t and Make Money Doing It,” I’ve always been willing to take the “other side” of the “consensus view.” That willingness – combined with a commitment to the long view – has worked out very well through the years.
[ad#Google Adsense 336×280-IA]So, while most people don’t trust politicians – especially presidents – as far as they can throw them, I’ve found it can pay big when you take the chief executive’s words at face value.
Consider this:
In a recent story in The New Yorker, political scientist Michael Krukones tabulated the campaign pledges of presidents – from Woodrow Wilson to Jimmy Carter – and revealed something that might shock you.
Presidents actually achieved about 73% of what they promised.
Outgoing President Barack Obama is no exception. Nonpartisan PolitiFact found that he achieved at least a “compromised version” of 70% of his campaign vows.
The investing takeaway here is simple: If we align our investing with the new administration’s spending targets, we stand to clean up.
It worked with healthcare stocks in the last administration, and I’m confident the sectors and stocks I’m about to show you will take off after the transition…
Infrastructure Is “In”
Much has been made of Donald Trump’s promise to “Make America Great Again,” but we think that should start with making America work again.
Trump has finally made infrastructure cool to talk about. Along the campaign trail, he repeatedly said he wanted to fix this country’s roads and bridges before embarking on big-idea ventures like manned missions to Mars. Having injected this topic into the public eye, he’ll likely follow through.
So it’s highly likely that infrastructure investments will benefit. One of my favorites would be a great stock to own no matter who was president, but under Trump, it’s a virtual lock: General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE). It’s poised to be a major player in the infrastructure sector of today… and of tomorrow.
In power generation – the component of the “today” infrastructure that makes the world go – the GE Alstom unit accounts for one-third of the world’s power-generating capacity. In the infrastructure sector of tomorrow, GE is using its Predix software business to create a “backbone” for the Industrial Internet.
Technology is going to revolutionize infrastructure build-out, but it’s also going to play a key role in keeping a lid on the globe’s many simmering trouble spots…
If You Want to Play Offense, Play Defense
During his campaign, Trump said he would boost defense spending by as much as 15%. He won’t be able to ramp up the Pentagon’s budget that much, but defense and security will be a focus.
Indeed, as we’ve said here many times, as the president-elect, Trump will have to deal with such issues as a “nuclearizing” North Korea and the tinder box known as the South China Sea. Both are combining to fuel an Asian-focused arms race that’s staggering in magnitude.
IHS Jane’s says arms spending in the Asia-Pacific will climb 23% a year to reach $533 billion by 2020. That will put it on par with North American defense spending.
One stock in this space we like a lot: Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE: LMT), maker of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, missile-defense system that’s now being deployed in South Korea. It’s probably the most advanced system of its type on the planet. Sales last year came in at $46.1 billion, and Lockheed’s backlog is $99.6 billion.
The growth prospects of the next companies I’m going to show you could be even bigger…
Take the Long View… and Look for Growers
Two of my favorite long-term growth plays, Facebook Inc. (Nasdaq: FB) and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE: BABA), are amazing companies right now, and they’re only going to get better.
Facebook is into drones, virtual reality, and something it just announced as a “breakthrough” in artificial intelligence (AI).
Bret Holmes, one of the smartest e-commerce experts I know, says that Facebook “is not only the world’s largest, most engaged website that monetizes its own ‘publication’ to the nth degree over everyone else – but will also soon be the world’s largest advertising platform. If Facebook leverages even 20% of what it’s doing now, the sky’s the limit for this company” – and for its stock.
It’s pulling back right now, thanks to questions over its content publication, but that just makes this a perfect time to beef up any position.
With Alibaba, you “ain’t seen nothing yet”: That e-commerce giant is keying on Asia – destined to be the new nexus of the global economy.
Back in 1985 – when the global economy was worth $19 trillion in “real” terms – North America, Europe, and Japan accounted for two-thirds of all global growth.
Back then, China and the rest of emerging Asia accounted for a mere 18%. Global growth was faster then – about 4%. Fast-forward three decades, and this whole relationship has flipped 180 degrees. Now, two-thirds of “real GDP” ($114 trillion) is due to China and emerging Asia – with the former “Big Three” only accounting for 29% of the total.
But I want to leave you with one final thought that I’m sure is going to serve you well – and make you wealthier – in the weeks ahead.
Use Any Possible Period of Uncertainty to Your Benefit
The stock market has clearly digested Donald Trump’s White House victory – along with a Republican sweep of Congress.
In fact, as I write this, “Trump Bump” and the prospect of comity in Washington have put the Dow Jones Industrial Average within spitting distance of 19,000 for the first time ever.
[ad#Google Adsense 336×280-IA]But for all of Trump’s plans and the market’s optimism about them, we’re seeing signs that the transition might not go as smoothly as it has in previous years.
If that turns out to to be the case, uncertainty is likely to come roaring back.
But it’s nothing to fear.
After all, it was Sir Winston Churchill who said, “A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.”
Listen to Sir Winston. Like me, the legendary British wartime prime minister is counseling you to act when others are fearful.
The key here is to not panic as the market dodges and weaves. Identify the stocks you want to own, take an initial position, and set up an “Accumulate” strategy that allows you to build your stakes in the companies I’ve just mentioned on pullbacks. Facebook is a great example of a company to absolutely load up on at a time like this.
This approach will let you “average down” the price you pay and will also allow you to build your savings through cash flow – meaning you can take the extra few dollars you come up with here and there to build your long-term wealth.
— William Patalon III
[ad#mmpress]
Source: Money Morning